Major League Baseball · 2026

Is your team
toast?

The Toastometer estimates how much realistic closing room remains in a pennant race. It began as a way to know when the Braves could stop worrying about the rest of the NL East.

Potential closing rate: 0.4
Braves division TM: 10.9
Updated: August 30, 2026 at 10:51 AM EDT

The original idea

Four games per ten.

A trailing team is assumed to be capable of making up four games for every ten it has left. That 0.4 potential closing rate is deliberately used through the final game of the season.

This is a practical rule of thumb, not yet a statistically fitted limit. We can test and refine it later; for now, the original 0.4 premise remains intact.

The calculation

TM = PCR × GR − (GB − 0.5)

TM: Toast Margin
PCR: Potential Closing Rate: 0.4
GR: Games Remaining
GB: Games Behind

The half-game allowance means a team reaches zero just before the formula considers it toast. Below zero, the required comeback has exceeded the assumed closing pace.

Historical caveat: In the cases examined, we are unaware of any MLB team that recovered after reaching a Toast Margin below −1.2.

The daily board

Who is getting warm?

Switch between each club’s division race and the wild-card cutoff. Negative margins are toast by this model—not mathematically eliminated.

Find a teamLeagueDivision

Team	Record	GB	GR	Toast margin	Status
Chicago White SoxAL Central	72–63	—	27	—	Leading
Tampa Bay RaysAL East	81–54	—	27	—	Leading
Houston AstrosAL West	68–68	—	26	—	Leading
Milwaukee BrewersNL Central	85–51	—	26	—	Leading
Atlanta BravesNL East	81–55	—	26	—	Leading
Los Angeles DodgersNL West	81–55	—	26	—	Leading
Texas RangersAL West	66–70	2.0	26	8.9	Warming
Seattle MarinersAL West	64–72	4.0	26	6.9	Warming
Cleveland GuardiansAL Central	68–68	4.5	26	6.4	Warming
New York YankeesAL East	77–59	4.5	26	6.4	Warming
Philadelphia PhilliesNL East	76–60	5.0	26	5.9	Warming
Boston Red SoxAL East	74–62	7.5	26	3.4	Browning
Chicago CubsNL Central	77–59	8.0	26	2.9	Browning
Minnesota TwinsAL Central	64–72	8.5	26	2.4	Browning
Detroit TigersAL Central	63–72	9.0	27	2.3	Browning
San Diego PadresNL West	72–64	9.0	26	1.9	Toasty
Arizona DiamondbacksNL West	73–65	9.0	24	1.1	Toasty
Kansas City RoyalsAL Central	62–75	11.0	25	-0.5	Toast
Miami MarlinsNL East	68–68	13.0	26	-2.1	Toast
Baltimore OriolesAL East	67–69	14.5	26	-3.6	Toast
AthleticsAL West	53–83	15.0	26	-4.1	Toast
Toronto Blue JaysAL East	67–70	15.0	25	-4.5	Toast
Los Angeles AngelsAL West	52–84	16.0	26	-5.1	Toast
Washington NationalsNL East	65–73	17.0	24	-6.9	Toast
St. Louis CardinalsNL Central	68–69	17.5	25	-7.0	Toast
Pittsburgh PiratesNL Central	66–71	19.5	25	-9.0	Toast
New York MetsNL East	61–75	20.0	26	-9.1	Toast
Cincinnati RedsNL Central	64–72	21.0	26	-10.1	Toast
San Francisco GiantsNL West	56–81	25.5	25	-15.0	Toast
Colorado RockiesNL West	52–84	29.0	26	-18.1	Eliminated

In the wild-card view, division leaders are shown separately; every other team is measured against the club currently holding the third and final wild-card place. Leading, Clinched, and Eliminated are official-position statuses and override the heat scale.

Reading the heat

Bread10 or more

Warming5 to 9.9

Browning2 to 4.9

Toasty0 to 1.9

ToastBelow 0

LeadingCurrently holds the position

ClinchedOfficially secured the position

EliminatedOfficially out of the race

The heat bands apply only to pursuing teams. Leading, Clinched, and Eliminated override them; “Toast” still means highly unlikely, not mathematically eliminated.

Standings supplied by the official MLB Stats API. Data through August 30, 2026 at 10:51 AM EDT.

What the case studies say about PCR

Four games per ten lands exactly in the middle.

For each eventual winner, we calculated the lowest closing rate that would have kept it from ever becoming Toast.

6Came back from Toast

1Reached exactly TM = 0

6Never became Toast

Eventual winner	Required PCR	Lowest TM at .400
2007 Rockies	.750	−0.7
2009 Twins	.625	−0.9
1951 Giants	.571	−1.2
1962 Giants	.500	−0.7
2011 Cardinals	.500	−0.5
1964 Cardinals	.462	−0.8
2011 Rays	.400	0.0
2007 Phillies	.382	+0.3
1987 Tigers	.375	+0.2
1995 Mariners	.344	+0.5
1934 Cardinals	.333	+0.8
1938 Cubs	.250	+1.7
1993 Braves	.189	+0.9

Observed median.400

The thirteen required closing rates place .400 at the exact median. Six successful pursuers needed a faster rate and became Toast, six stayed below it, and the 2011 Rays landed precisely on the boundary.

Raising PCR enough to protect every eventual winner would require .750 because Colorado recovered from two games back with two remaining in 2007. That would make “Toast” nearly meaningless. Lowering PCR to .375 would classify eight of these thirteen successful comebacks as Toast and make the model too eager to give up.

RecommendationRetain PCR = .400

It identifies the genuinely exceptional escapes without declaring every large deficit hopeless.

The important limitation: these are famous successful comebacks, not a representative sample of every pennant race. Determining whether .400 is statistically optimal will require replaying all comparable races—including the many trailing teams that never recovered. For now, the historical evidence says the original rule of thumb was chosen remarkably well.

Toastometer Case Studies