Toastometer case study · No. 8
1987 AL East Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Seven Games, Seven Losses, Never Toast
- Peak deficit
- 3½ games
- Lowest TM
- +0.2
- Days Toast
- 0
- Outcome
- Won AL East
The Race
Seven Games, Seven Losses, Never Toast
Toronto’s largest lead arrived extraordinarily late: 3½ games with eight Detroit games remaining on September 26.
That combination put Detroit at TM +0.2—almost Toast, but not quite. Toronto then lost its final seven games.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | DET | TOR | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | 92–62 | 96–59 | 3.5 | 8 | +0.2 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 93–62 | 96–60 | 2.5 | 7 | +0.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 28 | 93–63 | 96–61 | 2.5 | 6 | +0.4 | Toasty |
| Sep 29 | 94–63 | 96–62 | 1.5 | 5 | +1.0 | Toasty |
| Sep 30 | 94–64 | 96–63 | 1.5 | 4 | +0.6 | Toasty |
| Oct 1 | 95–64 | 96–63 | 1.0 | 3 | +0.7 | Toasty |
| Oct 2 | 96–64 | 96–64 | 0.0 | 2 | +1.3 | Toasty |
| Oct 3 | 97–64 | 96–65 | −1.0 | 1 | +1.9 | Leading |
| Oct 4 | 98–64 | 96–66 | −2.0 | 0 | +2.5 | Leading |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 26The minimum margin
Three and a half back with eight left left Detroit just +0.2 above Toast.
- Sep. 27The streak begins
Toronto lost the series finale to Detroit and never won again.
- Oct. 4Winner takes the East
Frank Tanana shut out Toronto 1–0 in the final game.
What Happened
Won AL East
Four of Toronto’s seven closing losses came by one run, including two in extra innings.
Detroit swept the final three-game series and finished 98–64, two games ahead of the Blue Jays.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Chase — Never Toast
Detroit came within two-tenths of Toast but never crossed. The metric reads this as an extremely narrow escape, not a resurrection.
That is a satisfying distinction: a 3½-game lead with eight left looked safe, yet the remaining schedule still contained just enough plausible closing room.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays. Records are shown after play on each date.