Toastometer case study · No. 7
2011 AL Wild Card Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
The Other Half of Wild Wednesday
- Peak deficit
- 9 games
- Lowest TM
- 0.0
- Days Toast
- 0
- Outcome
- Won Wild Card
The Race
The Other Half of Wild Wednesday
On September 1, Boston led Tampa Bay by nine games for the American League Wild Card. The Rays had 26 games remaining, leaving TM +1.9: Toasty, but alive.
Tampa Bay took six of seven head-to-head games from Boston and kept closing. The race reached the final night tied.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | TB | BOS | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 74–62 | 83–53 | 9.0 | 26 | +1.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 2 | 74–63 | 83–54 | 9.0 | 25 | +1.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 3 | 75–63 | 84–54 | 9.0 | 24 | +1.1 | Toasty |
| Sep 4 | 76–63 | 84–55 | 8.0 | 23 | +1.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 5 | 77–63 | 84–56 | 7.0 | 22 | +2.3 | Browning |
| Sep 6 | 77–64 | 85–56 | 8.0 | 21 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 7 | 78–64 | 85–57 | 7.0 | 20 | +1.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 8 | 78–64 | 85–58 | 6.5 | 20 | +2.0 | Browning |
| Sep 9 | 79–64 | 85–59 | 5.5 | 19 | +2.6 | Browning |
| Sep 10 | 80–64 | 85–60 | 4.5 | 18 | +3.2 | Browning |
| Sep 11 | 81–64 | 85–61 | 3.5 | 17 | +3.8 | Browning |
| Sep 12 | 82–64 | 85–61 | 3.0 | 16 | +3.9 | Browning |
| Sep 13 | 82–65 | 86–61 | 4.0 | 15 | +2.5 | Browning |
| Sep 14 | 82–66 | 86–62 | 4.0 | 14 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Sep 15 | 83–66 | 86–63 | 3.0 | 13 | +2.7 | Browning |
| Sep 16 | 83–67 | 87–63 | 4.0 | 12 | +1.3 | Toasty |
| Sep 17 | 84–67 | 87–64 | 3.0 | 11 | +1.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 18 | 85–67 | 87–65 | 2.0 | 10 | +2.5 | Browning |
| Sep 19 | 85–67 | 88–66 | 2.0 | 10 | +2.5 | Browning |
| Sep 20 | 85–68 | 88–67 | 2.0 | 9 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Sep 21 | 85–70 | 88–68 | 2.5 | 7 | +0.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 22 | 86–70 | 88–68 | 2.0 | 6 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 23 | 86–71 | 88–68 | 2.5 | 5 | 0.0 | Toasty |
| Sep 24 | 87–71 | 88–69 | 1.5 | 4 | +0.6 | Toasty |
| Sep 25 | 88–71 | 89–70 | 1.0 | 3 | +0.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 26 | 89–71 | 89–71 | 0.0 | 2 | +1.3 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 90–71 | 90–71 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 28 | 91–71 | 90–72 | −1.0 | 0 | +1.5 | Leading |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 1Nine back, barely alive
TM +1.9 placed Tampa Bay at the edge of Toasty.
- Sep. 23Exactly on the line
Two and a half back with five left produced TM 0.0—but not below it.
- Sep. 28Wild Wednesday
Boston lost in Baltimore minutes before Tampa Bay completed an eight-run comeback.
What Happened
Won Wild Card
Boston led Baltimore entering the ninth but lost 4–3. Tampa Bay, once down 7–0 to New York, tied its game in the ninth and won in the 12th.
The Rays finished 91–71, one game ahead of the 90–72 Red Sox.
Toastometer Verdict
Photo Finish — Reached the Toast Line
Tampa Bay never became Toast. Its minimum was exactly 0.0, the boundary itself, on September 23.
This makes the dual 2011 collapses subtly different: St. Louis crossed below zero for one day; Tampa Bay reached the line but never crossed it.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. Records are shown after play on each date.