Toastometer case study · No. 9
2007 NL East Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Seven Back With Seventeen to Play
- Peak deficit
- 7 games
- Lowest TM
- +0.3
- Days Toast
- 0
- Outcome
- Won NL East
The Race
Seven Back With Seventeen to Play
On September 12, New York held a seven-game lead with 17 Philadelphia games remaining. TM was +0.3: profoundly Toasty, but still above zero.
Philadelphia immediately swept three games at Shea Stadium and kept applying pressure while the Mets lost 12 of their last 17.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | PHI | NYM | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | 76–69 | 83–62 | 7.0 | 17 | +0.3 | Toasty |
| Sep 13 | 77–69 | 83–62 | 6.5 | 16 | +0.4 | Toasty |
| Sep 14 | 78–69 | 83–63 | 5.5 | 15 | +1.0 | Toasty |
| Sep 15 | 79–69 | 83–64 | 4.5 | 14 | +1.6 | Toasty |
| Sep 16 | 80–69 | 83–65 | 3.5 | 13 | +2.2 | Browning |
| Sep 17 | 81–69 | 83–66 | 2.5 | 12 | +2.8 | Browning |
| Sep 18 | 82–69 | 83–67 | 1.5 | 11 | +3.4 | Browning |
| Sep 19 | 82–70 | 84–67 | 2.5 | 10 | +2.0 | Browning |
| Sep 20 | 83–70 | 84–68 | 1.5 | 9 | +2.6 | Browning |
| Sep 21 | 84–70 | 85–68 | 1.5 | 8 | +2.2 | Browning |
| Sep 22 | 85–70 | 86–68 | 1.5 | 7 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 23 | 85–71 | 87–68 | 2.5 | 6 | +0.4 | Toasty |
| Sep 24 | 85–71 | 87–69 | 2.0 | 6 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 25 | 85–72 | 87–70 | 2.0 | 5 | +0.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 26 | 86–72 | 87–71 | 1.0 | 4 | +1.1 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 87–72 | 87–72 | 0.0 | 3 | +1.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 28 | 88–72 | 87–73 | −1.0 | 2 | +2.3 | Leading |
| Sep 29 | 88–73 | 88–73 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 30 | 89–73 | 88–74 | −1.0 | 0 | +1.5 | Leading |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 12The lowest margin came first
Seven back with 17 left yielded TM +0.3.
- Sep. 14–16The Shea sweep
Three head-to-head wins cut the deficit to 3½ games.
- Sep. 30The final-day reversal
Philadelphia won while New York fell behind 7–0 in the first inning and lost.
What Happened
Won NL East
The teams entered the final day tied. Philadelphia beat Washington 6–1; Florida beat New York 8–1.
The Phillies finished 89–73 and won the division by one game.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Chase — Never Toast
Philadelphia never became Toast. It started the chosen window only +0.3 above the line and moved away from danger immediately.
The case validates the half-game allowance nicely: the comeback was spectacular, but the model did not prematurely call it impossible.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets. Records are shown after play on each date.