Toastometer case study · No. 5
2007 NL Wild Card Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Rocktober Came Back From Toast
- Peak deficit
- 6 games
- Lowest TM
- −0.7
- Days Toast
- 3
- Outcome
- Won Wild Card
The Race
Rocktober Came Back From Toast
Colorado entered September six games behind San Diego in the Wild Card race. With 27 games remaining, TM was +5.3: Warming, with ample room to make a run.
The Rockies then produced one of baseball’s greatest finishes, winning 13 of their final 14 scheduled games. Even that surge included three separate playing dates below the Toast Line.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | COL | SD | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 69–66 | 75–60 | 6.0 | 27 | +5.3 | Warming |
| Sep 2 | 70–66 | 75–61 | 5.0 | 26 | +5.9 | Warming |
| Sep 3 | 71–66 | 76–61 | 5.0 | 25 | +5.5 | Warming |
| Sep 4 | 72–66 | 76–62 | 4.0 | 24 | +6.1 | Warming |
| Sep 5 | 72–67 | 76–63 | 4.0 | 23 | +5.7 | Warming |
| Sep 7 | 73–67 | 76–64 | 3.0 | 22 | +6.3 | Warming |
| Sep 8 | 73–68 | 77–64 | 4.0 | 21 | +4.9 | Browning |
| Sep 9 | 74–68 | 77–65 | 3.0 | 20 | +5.5 | Warming |
| Sep 10 | 74–69 | 77–65 | 3.5 | 19 | +4.6 | Browning |
| Sep 11 | 75–69 | 78–65 | 3.5 | 18 | +4.2 | Browning |
| Sep 12 | 76–69 | 78–66 | 2.5 | 17 | +4.8 | Browning |
| Sep 13 | 76–70 | 78–67 | 2.5 | 16 | +4.4 | Browning |
| Sep 14 | 76–71 | 79–67 | 3.5 | 15 | +3.0 | Browning |
| Sep 15 | 76–72 | 80–67 | 4.5 | 14 | +1.6 | Toasty |
| Sep 16 | 77–72 | 81–67 | 4.5 | 13 | +1.2 | Toasty |
| Sep 17 | 77–72 | 82–67 | 5.0 | 13 | +0.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 18 | 79–72 | 83–67 | 4.5 | 11 | +0.4 | Toasty |
| Sep 19 | 80–72 | 84–67 | 4.5 | 10 | 0.0 | Toasty |
| Sep 20 | 81–72 | 85–67 | 4.5 | 9 | −0.4 | Toast |
| Sep 21 | 82–72 | 85–68 | 3.5 | 8 | +0.2 | Toasty |
| Sep 22 | 83–72 | 85–69 | 2.5 | 7 | +0.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 23 | 84–72 | 85–70 | 1.5 | 6 | +1.4 | Toasty |
| Sep 24 | 84–72 | 85–71 | 1.0 | 6 | +1.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 25 | 85–72 | 86–71 | 1.0 | 5 | +1.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 26 | 86–72 | 87–71 | 1.0 | 4 | +1.1 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 87–72 | 88–71 | 1.0 | 3 | +0.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 28 | 87–73 | 89–71 | 2.0 | 2 | −0.7 | Toast |
| Sep 29 | 88–73 | 89–72 | 1.0 | 1 | −0.1 | Toast |
| Sep 30 | 89–73 | 89–73 | 0.0 | 0 | +0.5 | Toasty |
| Oct 1 | 90–73 | 89–74 | −1.0 | 0 | — | Won Race |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 20First became Toast
Four and a half back with nine remaining pushed Colorado to TM −0.4.
- Sep. 28The deepest Toast
A loss left the Rockies two back with two to play: TM −0.7.
- Oct. 1Game 163
Colorado rallied in the 13th inning to beat San Diego 9–8 and win the Wild Card.
What Happened
Won Wild Card
Colorado won on September 29 and 30 while San Diego lost both days, producing an 89–73 tie after 162 games.
In the tiebreaker at Coors Field, the Rockies came back from two runs down in the 13th and scored three times to win 9–8.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Escape — Came Back From Toast
Colorado spent three playing dates below zero and reached −0.7. This was a genuine Great Escape, numerically tied with the 1962 Giants for the fourth-lowest minimum in the collection.
San Diego did not simply disintegrate; the Padres were 14–12 in September before the tiebreaker. Colorado forced the issue by going 20–8 in the month and 13–1 at the finish.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres. Records are shown after play on each date.