Toastometer case study · No. 6
2011 NL Wild Card St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
The Team That Came Back From Toast
- Peak deficit
- 10½ games
- Lowest TM
- −0.5
- Days Toast
- 1
- Outcome
- Won Wild Card
The Race
Ten and a half back. Thirty-three to play.
On August 23, Atlanta held a 10½-game lead over St. Louis for the National League Wild Card. The Braves were 78–52; the Cardinals were 67–62. It looked like a settled race. Toastometer disagreed—barely. With 33 games still available, St. Louis had a margin of +3.2: Browning, but not Toast.
By September 5 the gap was still 8½ games, now with only 21 remaining. The margin had shrunk to +0.4. St. Louis was intensely Toasty, but the model still found just enough closing room to keep the race alive.
The Cardinals used every inch of it. They swept Atlanta from September 9–11, then kept pressing until the teams entered the final day tied. St. Louis won its 90th game; Atlanta lost its 73rd. A 10½-game deficit became a one-game Wild Card victory.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400 throughout. Off-days shared by both teams are omitted.
| Date | STL | ATL | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 23 | 67–62 | 78–52 | 10.5 | 33 | +3.2 | Browning |
| Aug. 24 | 67–63 | 78–53 | 10.5 | 32 | +2.8 | Browning |
| Aug. 25 | 68–63 | 79–53 | 10.5 | 31 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Aug. 26 | 69–63 | 79–54 | 9.5 | 30 | +3.0 | Browning |
| Aug. 27 | 69–64 | 79–54 | 10.0 | 29 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Aug. 28 | 70–64 | 79–54 | 9.5 | 28 | +2.2 | Browning |
| Aug. 30 | 71–64 | 79–55 | 8.5 | 27 | +2.8 | Browning |
| Aug. 31 | 72–64 | 80–55 | 8.5 | 26 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Sep. 1 | 73–64 | 81–55 | 8.5 | 25 | +2.0 | Browning |
| Sep. 2 | 73–65 | 81–56 | 8.5 | 24 | +1.6 | Toasty |
| Sep. 3 | 74–65 | 81–57 | 7.5 | 23 | +2.2 | Browning |
| Sep. 4 | 74–66 | 82–57 | 8.5 | 22 | +0.8 | Toasty |
| Sep. 5 | 74–67 | 82–58 | 8.5 | 21 | +0.4 | Toasty |
| Sep. 6 | 75–67 | 82–59 | 7.5 | 20 | +1.0 | Toasty |
| Sep. 7 | 76–67 | 82–60 | 6.5 | 19 | +1.6 | Toasty |
| Sep. 8 | 76–67 | 84–60 | 7.5 | 19 | +0.6 | Toasty |
| Sep. 9 | 77–67 | 84–61 | 6.5 | 18 | +1.2 | Toasty |
| Sep. 10 | 78–67 | 84–62 | 5.5 | 17 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep. 11 | 79–67 | 84–63 | 4.5 | 16 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Sep. 12 | 79–68 | 84–64 | 4.5 | 15 | +2.0 | Browning |
| Sep. 13 | 80–68 | 85–64 | 4.5 | 14 | +1.6 | Toasty |
| Sep. 14 | 81–68 | 86–64 | 4.5 | 13 | +1.2 | Toasty |
| Sep. 16 | 82–68 | 86–65 | 3.5 | 12 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep. 17 | 82–69 | 87–65 | 4.5 | 11 | +0.4 | Toasty |
| Sep. 18 | 83–69 | 87–66 | 3.5 | 10 | +1.0 | Toasty |
| Sep. 19 | 84–69 | 87–67 | 2.5 | 9 | +1.6 | Toasty |
| Sep. 20 | 85–69 | 88–67 | 2.5 | 8 | +1.2 | Toasty |
| Sep. 21 | 86–69 | 88–68 | 1.5 | 7 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep. 22 | 86–70 | 88–68 | 2.0 | 6 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep. 23 | 86–71 | 89–68 | 3.0 | 5 | −0.5 | Toast |
| Sep. 24 | 87–71 | 89–69 | 2.0 | 4 | +0.1 | Toasty |
| Sep. 25 | 88–71 | 89–70 | 1.0 | 3 | +0.7 | Toasty |
| Sep. 26 | 88–72 | 89–71 | 1.0 | 2 | +0.3 | Toasty |
| Sep. 27 | 89–72 | 89–72 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep. 28 | 90–72 | 89–73 | −1.0 | 0 | — | Won WC |
Toast Margin Chart
Across the line—and straight back
Above zero, the assumed comeback remains achievable. Below it, the team is Toast.
The Turning Points
Four days that changed the race
- Sep. 5Still alive at +0.4
Eight and a half games back with 21 to play looked hopeless. Toastometer called it Toasty, not Toast.
- Sep. 9–11The head-to-head sweep
Three Cardinals wins were also three Braves losses. The gap fell from 7½ games to 4½ in a single series.
- Sep. 23Officially Toast
Atlanta won while St. Louis lost. Three back with five to play produced TM −0.5—the only negative reading of the chase.
- Sep. 24Untoasted
The results reversed. TM rebounded to +0.1, and St. Louis never crossed below the line again.
What Happened
Atlanta lost its last five. St. Louis passed it on the last day.
Beginning September 24, the Braves lost five straight games. The Cardinals went 4–1 over the same stretch, pulling even on September 27 and ahead on September 28. They finished 90–72; Atlanta finished 89–73.
The comeback did not require the Cardinals to win every night. It required them to stay close enough for Atlanta’s final slide to matter—and that is exactly the room the positive Toast Margin had preserved.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Escape — Came Back From Toast
The striking result is not simply that Atlanta surrendered the lead. It is that Toastometer did not declare St. Louis Toast at 8½ games back with 21 to play. The formula waited until a more extreme moment: three games behind with only five opportunities remaining.
Even then, the Cardinals were only just below the line. Their one-day dip to −0.5 makes this the cleanest possible Great Escape: genuinely Toast, immediately untoasted, and ultimately in the postseason.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. Records are shown after play on each date.