Toastometer case study · No. 10
1995 AL West Seattle Mariners vs. California Angels
Thirteen Back to Game 145
- Peak deficit
- 13 games
- Lowest TM
- +0.5
- Days Toast
- 0
- Outcome
- Won AL West
The Race
Thirteen Back to Game 145
Seattle trailed California by 13 games on August 2, the largest deficit in this set. Because the strike-shortened schedule still left 55 Mariners games, TM remained +9.5.
California endured two nine-game losing streaks. Seattle caught and passed the Angels, then survived California’s late recovery to force a tiebreaker.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | SEA | CAL | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2 | 43–46 | 56–33 | 13.0 | 55 | +9.5 | Warming |
| Aug 3 | 44–46 | 56–34 | 12.0 | 54 | +10.1 | Bread |
| Aug 4 | 44–47 | 56–35 | 12.0 | 53 | +9.7 | Warming |
| Aug 5 | 45–47 | 57–35 | 12.0 | 52 | +9.3 | Warming |
| Aug 6 | 46–47 | 57–36 | 11.0 | 51 | +9.9 | Warming |
| Aug 7 | 47–47 | 58–36 | 11.0 | 50 | +9.5 | Warming |
| Aug 8 | 48–47 | 59–36 | 11.0 | 49 | +9.1 | Warming |
| Aug 9 | 49–47 | 60–36 | 11.0 | 48 | +8.7 | Warming |
| Aug 10 | 49–47 | 60–37 | 10.5 | 48 | +9.2 | Warming |
| Aug 11 | 50–47 | 61–37 | 10.5 | 47 | +8.8 | Warming |
| Aug 12 | 50–48 | 61–38 | 10.5 | 46 | +8.4 | Warming |
| Aug 13 | 50–49 | 62–38 | 11.5 | 45 | +7.0 | Warming |
| Aug 14 | 51–49 | 63–38 | 11.5 | 44 | +6.6 | Warming |
| Aug 15 | 51–50 | 64–38 | 12.5 | 43 | +5.2 | Warming |
| Aug 16 | 52–50 | 64–39 | 11.5 | 42 | +5.8 | Warming |
| Aug 17 | 52–51 | 64–40 | 11.5 | 41 | +5.4 | Warming |
| Aug 18 | 53–51 | 64–41 | 10.5 | 40 | +6.0 | Warming |
| Aug 19 | 53–52 | 65–41 | 11.5 | 39 | +4.6 | Browning |
| Aug 20 | 53–53 | 66–41 | 12.5 | 38 | +3.2 | Browning |
| Aug 21 | 54–53 | 66–42 | 11.5 | 37 | +3.8 | Browning |
| Aug 22 | 54–54 | 66–43 | 11.5 | 36 | +3.4 | Browning |
| Aug 23 | 54–55 | 66–44 | 11.5 | 35 | +3.0 | Browning |
| Aug 24 | 55–55 | 67–44 | 11.5 | 34 | +2.6 | Browning |
| Aug 25 | 56–55 | 67–45 | 10.5 | 33 | +3.2 | Browning |
| Aug 26 | 57–55 | 67–46 | 9.5 | 32 | +3.8 | Browning |
| Aug 27 | 57–56 | 67–47 | 9.5 | 31 | +3.4 | Browning |
| Aug 29 | 58–56 | 67–48 | 8.5 | 30 | +4.0 | Browning |
| Aug 30 | 58–57 | 67–49 | 8.5 | 29 | +3.6 | Browning |
| Aug 31 | 59–57 | 67–50 | 7.5 | 28 | +4.2 | Browning |
| Sep 1 | 60–57 | 67–51 | 6.5 | 27 | +4.8 | Browning |
| Sep 2 | 60–58 | 67–52 | 6.5 | 26 | +4.4 | Browning |
| Sep 3 | 61–58 | 67–53 | 5.5 | 25 | +5.0 | Warming |
| Sep 4 | 61–59 | 68–53 | 6.5 | 24 | +3.6 | Browning |
| Sep 5 | 62–59 | 68–54 | 5.5 | 23 | +4.2 | Browning |
| Sep 6 | 62–60 | 68–55 | 5.5 | 22 | +3.8 | Browning |
| Sep 7 | 62–61 | 68–55 | 6.0 | 21 | +2.9 | Browning |
| Sep 8 | 63–61 | 69–55 | 6.0 | 20 | +2.5 | Browning |
| Sep 9 | 64–61 | 70–55 | 6.0 | 19 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Sep 10 | 65–61 | 70–56 | 5.0 | 18 | +2.7 | Browning |
| Sep 11 | 65–62 | 71–56 | 6.0 | 17 | +1.3 | Toasty |
| Sep 12 | 66–62 | 72–56 | 6.0 | 16 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Sep 13 | 67–62 | 72–57 | 5.0 | 15 | +1.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 15 | 68–62 | 72–58 | 4.0 | 14 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Sep 16 | 69–62 | 72–59 | 3.0 | 13 | +2.7 | Browning |
| Sep 17 | 69–63 | 72–60 | 3.0 | 12 | +2.3 | Browning |
| Sep 18 | 70–63 | 72–61 | 2.0 | 11 | +2.9 | Browning |
| Sep 19 | 71–63 | 72–62 | 1.0 | 10 | +3.5 | Browning |
| Sep 20 | 72–63 | 72–63 | 0.0 | 9 | +4.1 | Browning |
| Sep 22 | 73–63 | 72–64 | −1.0 | 8 | +4.7 | Leading |
| Sep 23 | 74–63 | 72–65 | −2.0 | 7 | +5.3 | Leading |
| Sep 24 | 75–63 | 73–65 | −2.0 | 6 | +4.9 | Leading |
| Sep 26 | 76–63 | 73–66 | −3.0 | 5 | +5.5 | Leading |
| Sep 27 | 76–64 | 74–66 | −2.0 | 4 | +4.1 | Leading |
| Sep 28 | 77–64 | 75–66 | −2.0 | 3 | +3.7 | Leading |
| Sep 29 | 78–64 | 76–66 | −2.0 | 2 | +3.3 | Leading |
| Sep 30 | 78–65 | 77–66 | −1.0 | 1 | +1.9 | Leading |
| Oct 1 | 78–66 | 78–66 | 0.0 | 0 | +0.5 | Toasty |
| Oct 2 | 79–66 | 78–67 | −1.0 | 0 | — | Won Race |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Aug. 2Thirteen games back
The huge deficit was offset by 55 remaining games: TM +9.5.
- Sep. 12Closest to the line while trailing
Six back with 16 left brought Seattle down to +0.9.
- Oct. 2Game 145
Randy Johnson led Seattle to a 9–1 tiebreaker victory.
What Happened
Won AL West
Both clubs completed the 144-game schedule at 78–66. The strike-shortened season therefore required one more game.
Seattle won the playoff 9–1, capturing the first division title in franchise history.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Chase — Never Toast
Seattle never became Toast. The formal minimum was +0.5 at the end-of-schedule tie; while still trailing, the closest reading was +0.9.
This is another anti-collapse lesson hidden inside a famous collapse: 13 games sounds overwhelming, but the schedule still contained substantial closing capacity.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Seattle Mariners and California Angels. Records are shown after play on each date.