Toastometer case study · No. 3
1964 National League Pennant St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phold and the Three Days of Toast
- Peak deficit
- 6½ games
- Lowest TM
- −0.8
- Days Toast
- 3
- Outcome
- Won NL Pennant
The Race
The Phold and the Three Days of Toast
On September 20, Philadelphia led St. Louis by 6½ games. The Cardinals had 13 games left, and TM was −0.8: already Toast at the beginning of this timeline.
Philadelphia then lost ten straight. St. Louis surged past both the Phillies and Reds and entered the final weekend controlling its own fate.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | STL | PHI | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | 83–66 | 90–60 | 6.5 | 13 | −0.8 | Toast |
| Sep 21 | 83–66 | 90–61 | 6.0 | 13 | −0.3 | Toast |
| Sep 22 | 84–66 | 90–62 | 5.0 | 12 | +0.3 | Toasty |
| Sep 23 | 84–67 | 90–63 | 5.0 | 11 | −0.1 | Toast |
| Sep 24 | 86–67 | 90–64 | 3.5 | 9 | +0.6 | Toasty |
| Sep 25 | 87–67 | 90–65 | 2.5 | 8 | +1.2 | Toasty |
| Sep 26 | 88–67 | 90–66 | 1.5 | 7 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 89–67 | 90–67 | 0.5 | 6 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Sep 28 | 90–67 | 90–68 | −0.5 | 5 | +3.0 | Leading |
| Sep 29 | 91–67 | 90–69 | −1.5 | 4 | +3.6 | Leading |
| Sep 30 | 92–67 | 90–70 | −2.5 | 3 | +4.2 | Leading |
| Oct 2 | 92–68 | 91–70 | −1.5 | 2 | +2.8 | Leading |
| Oct 3 | 92–69 | 91–70 | −1.0 | 1 | +1.9 | Leading |
| Oct 4 | 93–69 | 92–70 | −1.0 | 0 | +1.5 | Leading |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 20Toast at the peak deficit
Six and a half back with 13 Cardinals games left produced TM −0.8.
- Sep. 28The race turns
Philadelphia’s seventh straight loss opened the door for St. Louis and Cincinnati.
- Oct. 4Pennant clinched
St. Louis beat New York 11–5 to finish one game ahead.
What Happened
Won NL Pennant
The Phillies’ ten-game losing streak transformed a seemingly secure lead into a three-team race. Philadelphia recovered to win its last two, but too late.
St. Louis finished 93–69; Philadelphia and Cincinnati finished 92–70.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Escape — Came Back From Toast
The Cardinals spent three playing dates below zero, with −0.8 the minimum. Toastometer agrees that the comeback required something extraordinary.
Unlike 1993, this story really was driven by the leader’s collapse: ten consecutive Philadelphia losses created the opening.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies. Records are shown after play on each date.