Toastometer case study · No. 13
1938 National League Pennant Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Homer in the Gloamin’
- Peak deficit
- 7 games
- Lowest TM
- +1.7
- Days Toast
- 0
- Outcome
- Won NL Pennant
The Race
The Homer in the Gloamin’
Pittsburgh entered September seven games ahead of Chicago. The Cubs had 30 games left, so TM stood at +5.5—Warming, not desperate.
Chicago surged through the month and swept Pittsburgh in their penultimate series, including Gabby Hartnett’s famous walk-off homer in the gathering darkness at Wrigley Field.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | CHC | PIT | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 68–56 | 74–48 | 7.0 | 30 | +5.5 | Warming |
| Sep 2 | 68–56 | 74–49 | 6.5 | 30 | +6.0 | Warming |
| Sep 3 | 68–58 | 74–50 | 7.0 | 28 | +4.7 | Browning |
| Sep 4 | 69–58 | 75–50 | 7.0 | 27 | +4.3 | Browning |
| Sep 5 | 71–58 | 75–52 | 5.0 | 25 | +5.5 | Warming |
| Sep 7 | 72–58 | 76–52 | 5.0 | 24 | +5.1 | Warming |
| Sep 8 | 73–58 | 76–53 | 4.0 | 23 | +5.7 | Warming |
| Sep 9 | 74–58 | 76–53 | 3.5 | 22 | +5.8 | Warming |
| Sep 10 | 74–59 | 77–53 | 4.5 | 21 | +4.4 | Browning |
| Sep 11 | 75–59 | 77–54 | 3.5 | 20 | +5.0 | Warming |
| Sep 13 | 75–60 | 77–54 | 4.0 | 19 | +4.1 | Browning |
| Sep 14 | 76–60 | 77–56 | 2.5 | 18 | +5.2 | Warming |
| Sep 15 | 76–60 | 78–56 | 3.0 | 18 | +4.7 | Browning |
| Sep 16 | 76–60 | 79–57 | 3.0 | 18 | +4.7 | Browning |
| Sep 17 | 78–60 | 80–57 | 2.5 | 16 | +4.4 | Browning |
| Sep 18 | 78–61 | 81–57 | 3.5 | 14 | +2.6 | Browning |
| Sep 22 | 80–61 | 83–57 | 3.5 | 12 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 23 | 82–61 | 83–58 | 2.0 | 10 | +2.5 | Browning |
| Sep 24 | 83–61 | 84–58 | 2.0 | 9 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Sep 25 | 84–61 | 85–58 | 2.0 | 8 | +1.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 26 | 85–61 | 85–58 | 1.5 | 7 | +1.8 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 86–61 | 85–59 | 0.5 | 6 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Sep 28 | 87–61 | 85–60 | −0.5 | 5 | +3.0 | Leading |
| Sep 29 | 88–61 | 85–61 | −1.5 | 4 | +3.6 | Leading |
| Sep 30 | 88–61 | 86–62 | −1.5 | 3 | +3.2 | Leading |
| Oct 1 | 89–62 | 86–63 | −2.0 | 1 | +2.9 | Leading |
| Oct 2 | 89–63 | 86–64 | −2.0 | 0 | +2.5 | Leading |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 1Seven back
Thirty remaining games gave Chicago a healthy +5.5 margin.
- Sep. 25The minimum
Two back with eight left brought TM to +1.7, still above Toast.
- Sep. 28The Homer in the Gloamin’
Hartnett’s ninth-inning homer put Chicago into first place.
What Happened
Won NL Pennant
The Cubs completed a three-game sweep of Pittsburgh and carried their winning streak through the clinch.
Chicago finished 89–63; Pittsburgh finished 86–64.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Chase — Never Toast
Chicago’s minimum was +1.7. The Cubs became Toasty, but never Toast.
Among this collection, it is the least extreme by minimum margin—famous and dramatic, but with more closing room than the others.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates. Records are shown after play on each date.