Toastometer case study · No. 2
2009 AL Central Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Toast, Tied, and One Game More
- Peak deficit
- 7 games
- Lowest TM
- −0.9
- Days Toast
- 2
- Outcome
- Won AL Central
The Race
Toast, Tied, and One Game More
Detroit held a seven-game lead on September 6. Minnesota was 68–68 with 26 games left, giving the Twins TM +3.9.
The race tightened, loosened, and tightened again. Detroit still led by three with four Minnesota games remaining on September 30—the moment the Twins crossed deepest below zero.
Toastometer Timeline
The race, one playing day at a time
PCR is fixed at .400. Shared off-days are omitted; playoff rows have no TM.
| Date | MIN | DET | GB | GR | TM | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 | 68–68 | 75–61 | 7.0 | 26 | +3.9 | Browning |
| Sep 7 | 69–68 | 75–61 | 6.5 | 25 | +4.0 | Browning |
| Sep 8 | 69–69 | 75–62 | 6.5 | 24 | +3.6 | Browning |
| Sep 9 | 70–69 | 75–63 | 5.5 | 23 | +4.2 | Browning |
| Sep 10 | 70–70 | 75–64 | 5.5 | 22 | +3.8 | Browning |
| Sep 11 | 70–71 | 75–65 | 5.5 | 21 | +3.4 | Browning |
| Sep 12 | 70–72 | 75–66 | 5.5 | 20 | +3.0 | Browning |
| Sep 13 | 71–72 | 76–66 | 5.5 | 19 | +2.6 | Browning |
| Sep 14 | 72–72 | 77–66 | 5.5 | 18 | +2.2 | Browning |
| Sep 15 | 73–72 | 77–67 | 4.5 | 17 | +2.8 | Browning |
| Sep 16 | 74–72 | 78–67 | 4.5 | 16 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Sep 17 | 74–72 | 78–68 | 4.0 | 16 | +2.9 | Browning |
| Sep 18 | 75–72 | 78–69 | 3.0 | 15 | +3.5 | Browning |
| Sep 19 | 76–72 | 78–70 | 2.0 | 14 | +4.1 | Browning |
| Sep 20 | 76–73 | 79–70 | 3.0 | 13 | +2.7 | Browning |
| Sep 21 | 77–73 | 79–70 | 2.5 | 12 | +2.8 | Browning |
| Sep 22 | 78–73 | 80–70 | 2.5 | 11 | +2.4 | Browning |
| Sep 23 | 79–73 | 81–70 | 2.5 | 10 | +2.0 | Browning |
| Sep 24 | 79–73 | 82–70 | 3.0 | 10 | +1.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 25 | 80–73 | 82–71 | 2.0 | 9 | +2.1 | Browning |
| Sep 26 | 81–73 | 83–71 | 2.0 | 8 | +1.7 | Toasty |
| Sep 27 | 81–74 | 83–72 | 2.0 | 7 | +1.3 | Toasty |
| Sep 29 | 82–75 | 84–73 | 2.0 | 5 | +0.5 | Toasty |
| Sep 30 | 82–76 | 85–73 | 3.0 | 4 | −0.9 | Toast |
| Oct 1 | 83–76 | 85–74 | 2.0 | 3 | −0.3 | Toast |
| Oct 2 | 84–76 | 85–75 | 1.0 | 2 | +0.3 | Toasty |
| Oct 3 | 85–76 | 85–76 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.9 | Toasty |
| Oct 4 | 86–76 | 86–76 | 0.0 | 0 | +0.5 | Toasty |
| Oct 6 | 87–76 | 86–77 | −1.0 | 0 | — | Won Race |
Toast Margin Chart
How close the chase came to Toast
The zero line separates an achievable closing pace from Toast.
The Turning Points
How the race changed
- Sep. 6Seven back
Minnesota was Browning at +3.9, but still had 26 games to work with.
- Sep. 30TM −0.9
Three games behind with four left made the Twins officially Toast.
- Oct. 6Game 163
Minnesota won 6–5 in 12 innings to take the division.
What Happened
Won AL Central
Minnesota won its final four scheduled games while Detroit lost three of four, producing an 86–76 tie.
The Twins then won a classic tiebreaker at the Metrodome, walking off the Tigers in the 12th inning.
Toastometer Verdict
Great Escape — Came Back From Toast
Minnesota spent two playing dates below zero and bottomed at −0.9. This was a real Great Escape, not merely a dramatic tie.
The extra tiebreaker game does not enter the Toast Margin; the Twins first had to erase the deficit within the scheduled season to earn it.
Daily records and results verified against the official MLB schedules for Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers. Records are shown after play on each date.