PPenultimatology

College football · 2026 · Preseason projection

The field,
measured.

A transparent Massey system for team strength, game probabilities, and projected regular-season records—built to change as the games do.

Teams
138
Completed games
0
Simulated seasons
50,000

The distinction

Strength is not destiny.

Rank measures estimated team strength. Projected wins combine that strength with the difficulty and location of each opponent.

These are preseason estimates, not declarations. Team strength varies in each of 50,000 simulations, and the prior disappears after a team’s fourth game.

Preseason projection

Ratings & projections

Updated from the complete 2025 season and the current 2026 schedule.

RankTeamActualRatingSOSGame projectionConference projection6+ winsView team
1Indiana0–060.1#3620.5 avg.12–09–098%
2Ohio State0–051.6#427.8 avg.11–18–192%
3Oregon0–049.4#3022.3 avg.11–18–194%
4Notre Dame0–049.1#5616.6 avg.12–00–097%
5Texas Tech0–048.2#7610.4 avg.12–09–098%
6Miami0–045.2#6413.7 avg.11–19–096%
7Utah0–042.8#4019.9 avg.12–09–092%
8Georgia0–040.7#1424.3 avg.10–27–284%
9Iowa0–040.2#3321.0 avg.10–27–287%
10Ole Miss0–039.8#2322.7 avg.9–36–385%
11USC0–038.9#926.1 avg.8–45–481%
12Texas A&M0–038.5#2422.7 avg.10–27–284%
13Alabama0–038.5#1324.8 avg.11–18–181%
14Vanderbilt0–038.1#1225.2 avg.11–18–181%
15Washington0–037.3#1025.9 avg.9–36–378%
16Oklahoma0–036.7#826.2 avg.10–28–176%
17Penn State0–035.4#4219.1 avg.10–27–285%
18BYU0–035.4#3720.4 avg.10–28–183%
19Texas0–034.1#229.1 avg.7–55–469%
20Michigan0–033.6#329.0 avg.8–45–470%
21Illinois0–031.8#2722.5 avg.9–36–376%
22Florida State0–030.6#4119.8 avg.8–45–376%
23Arizona0–030.5#2222.8 avg.8–45–473%
24Missouri0–030.5#2023.6 avg.8–45–471%
25South Florida0–030.3#954.6 avg.12–08–094%
26Tennessee0–030.2#1623.9 avg.7–55–469%
27Virginia0–028.1#7410.9 avg.10–27–286%
28SMU0–027.8#6314.2 avg.9–37–282%
29North Texas0–027.6#876.6 avg.11–18–090%
30Auburn0–027.4#1823.7 avg.7–54–564%
31James Madison0–027.1#123-0.2 avg.12–08–094%
32Louisville0–027.0#4818.3 avg.9–37–273%
33LSU0–026.4#2622.7 avg.5–72–763%
34Pittsburgh0–026.0#6712.7 avg.10–27–281%
35Florida0–025.6#1524.2 avg.3–91–857%
36Kansas State0–025.4#5816.1 avg.8–45–474%
37TCU0–025.0#4518.6 avg.8–45–471%
38Iowa State0–024.7#5317.4 avg.8–46–372%
39NC State0–024.5#6513.4 avg.9–37–277%
40Clemson0–024.5#5916.0 avg.8–45–375%
41Georgia Tech0–024.5#5217.7 avg.9–36–271%
42Nebraska0–024.5#129.5 avg.4–81–849%
43South Carolina0–024.5#2123.1 avg.5–73–661%
44Arizona State0–023.6#4918.1 avg.8–46–367%
45Duke0–023.1#4319.0 avg.6–64–565%
46Northwestern0–022.9#1125.3 avg.4–81–854%
47Arkansas0–022.8#1923.6 avg.4–82–751%
48East Carolina0–022.3#925.2 avg.8–46–285%
49Wisconsin0–021.8#3920.3 avg.7–55–461%
50Houston0–021.4#6912.0 avg.9–36–374%
51Toledo0–021.0#136-2.7 avg.11–18–092%
52Wake Forest0–020.9#5018.0 avg.6–63–661%
53Kentucky0–020.3#726.2 avg.3–91–846%
54Kansas0–020.0#5716.5 avg.6–64–564%
55Old Dominion0–019.9#1072.0 avg.11–17–186%
56Washington State0–019.8#7510.9 avg.7–46–162%
57Mississippi State0–019.8#1723.7 avg.2–100–949%
58Cincinnati0–019.7#3520.7 avg.6–63–657%
59Rutgers0–019.5#5517.2 avg.5–72–758%
60Tulane0–019.4#7211.2 avg.7–55–373%
61Michigan State0–019.3#626.7 avg.4–82–744%
62Boise State0–019.3#7311.2 avg.9–26–167%
63San Diego State0–018.4#7910.0 avg.7–46–166%
64Baylor0–018.2#4418.8 avg.3–91–854%
65UTSA0–017.8#838.5 avg.8–45–374%
66Minnesota0–017.8#2922.3 avg.5–72–750%
67Memphis0–017.3#857.7 avg.7–55–374%
68Maryland0–017.1#3420.9 avg.6–63–651%
69Navy0–016.5#848.4 avg.8–36–267%
70New Mexico0–015.5#1151.2 avg.10–27–181%
71UCLA0–014.8#2522.7 avg.4–82–744%
72Purdue0–014.6#527.2 avg.3–92–734%
73UNLV0–014.0#934.8 avg.9–36–274%
74Army0–013.9#886.6 avg.8–35–364%
75UCF0–013.3#6214.5 avg.4–82–755%
76Virginia Tech0–013.0#5417.4 avg.3–92–746%
77Western Michigan0–012.5#1101.9 avg.9–37–178%
78Utah State0–012.5#6015.2 avg.5–63–444%
79Stanford0–011.5#2822.4 avg.2–100–936%
80Colorado0–011.3#3820.3 avg.3–92–738%
81Fresno State0–011.0#819.6 avg.5–62–552%
82Hawai'i0–010.8#1062.1 avg.10–28–073%
83California0–010.7#6114.6 avg.5–73–649%
84West Virginia0–010.0#4618.5 avg.3–91–842%
85Texas State0–09.9#6613.4 avg.5–64–346%
86Ohio0–09.6#127-0.7 avg.9–36–276%
87UConn0–07.4#1013.1 avg.6–60–065%
88Louisiana Tech0–06.7#1190.4 avg.7–56–266%
89Miami (OH)0–06.6#1131.4 avg.8–46–268%
90Boston College0–06.6#3121.1 avg.2–101–728%
91Kennesaw State0–06.0#133-2.4 avg.10–27–173%
92North Carolina0–05.9#3221.0 avg.2–101–727%
93Air Force0–05.8#126-0.5 avg.7–55–369%
94Temple0–05.7#809.7 avg.5–73–551%
95Western Kentucky0–05.1#974.0 avg.9–37–163%
96Marshall0–04.2#1141.3 avg.7–55–366%
97Syracuse0–02.7#4718.5 avg.1–110–926%
98Troy0–02.6#1091.9 avg.6–64–460%
99Wyoming0–01.5#1111.8 avg.5–74–456%
100Southern Miss0–01.5#1003.4 avg.5–74–451%
101Central Michigan0–00.7#1161.1 avg.7–55–358%
102Jacksonville State0–00.5#138-4.3 avg.8–45–366%
103Colorado State0–00.4#7111.2 avg.3–81–629%
104Florida International0–00.1#129-1.9 avg.6–64–462%
105Oregon State0–0-0.1#7011.8 avg.2–90–727%
106Liberty0–0-0.3#135-2.7 avg.7–55–363%
107Tulsa0–0-0.8#964.2 avg.6–63–548%
108Arkansas State0–0-0.9#1210.0 avg.5–74–456%
109Missouri State0–0-1.0#1022.5 avg.5–73–552%
110Nevada0–0-1.0#1042.3 avg.5–73–550%
111Georgia Southern0–0-1.2#905.9 avg.4–83–543%
112Oklahoma State0–0-1.2#5117.8 avg.1–110–921%
113San José State0–0-1.6#993.6 avg.5–84–555%
114Florida Atlantic0–0-1.7#828.9 avg.4–81–736%
115South Alabama0–0-2.6#1121.6 avg.4–83–549%
116Louisiana0–0-2.7#134-2.5 avg.9–36–259%
117Delaware0–0-2.8#983.9 avg.6–64–447%
118Northern Illinois0–0-3.9#915.5 avg.5–73–539%
119UAB0–0-4.0#7710.3 avg.3–91–730%
120Buffalo0–0-4.1#122-0.1 avg.5–74–450%
121Sacramento State0–0-4.3#137-3.2 avg.5–73–553%
122Bowling Green0–0-4.6#866.9 avg.4–84–434%
123Eastern Michigan0–0-4.9#1180.9 avg.5–73–545%
124App State0–0-4.9#1082.0 avg.4–82–644%
125Coastal Carolina0–0-5.6#128-1.5 avg.5–73–547%
126New Mexico State0–0-6.4#1170.9 avg.3–92–643%
127Middle Tennessee0–0-7.4#130-2.2 avg.4–83–546%
128Rice0–0-7.7#6812.0 avg.1–110–821%
129Kent State0–0-8.0#896.6 avg.3–92–630%
130UTEP0–0-9.1#944.8 avg.1–110–832%
131Akron0–0-9.7#1200.2 avg.4–83–537%
132Ball State0–0-10.7#1032.5 avg.2–101–732%
133Georgia State0–0-11.5#124-0.2 avg.2–101–733%
134Charlotte0–0-11.6#7810.2 avg.1–110–819%
135UL Monroe0–0-14.6#125-0.3 avg.1–110–829%
136North Dakota State0–0-14.8#131-2.2 avg.2–101–835%
137Sam Houston0–0-18.3#1052.1 avg.1–110–822%
138Massachusetts0–0-26.6#132-2.3 avg.2–100–816%

Team outlook

Georgia Tech

Strength rank #41 · Actual record 0–0 · 100% preseason influence

Game-by-game projection9–312% chance of exactly this record
Schedule strength#5217.7 opponent rating
Conference projection6–2
Expected record6.8–5.2
Most likely record7–5
6+ wins71%
Week 1 · HomeColorado
Projected W75%
Week 2 · HomeTennessee
Projected W50%
Week 3 · HomeMercer
Projected W95%
Week 4 · Away · ConferenceStanford
Projected W60%
Week 6 · Home · ConferenceDuke
Projected W60%
Week 7 · Away · ConferenceVirginia Tech
Projected W58%
Week 8 · Home · ConferenceBoston College
Projected W80%
Week 9 · Away · ConferencePittsburgh
Projected L40%
Week 10 · Home · ConferenceLouisville
Projected W55%
Week 11 · Away · ConferenceClemson
Projected L42%
Week 12 · Home · ConferenceWake Forest
Projected W63%
Week 13 · AwayGeorgia
Projected L22%

Predictions on the record

Weekly forecast & results

Each forecast is preserved before kickoff. Once scores arrive, the original choices remain unchanged and their accuracy is added to the record.

Week 0
Pending
8 games forecast
2026 season
Not started
Accuracy begins after Week 0

Forecast: Preseason projection · preseason ratings. A tie at exactly 50% is assigned to the home team for the published pick.

Showing 8 of 8 games

DateMatchupPredicted winnerPredicted marginWin probabilityResult
Aug 29North Carolinavs.TCUTCU19.1 points74.7%Pending
Aug 29San José StateatUSCUSC40.5 points93.4%Pending
Aug 29NC StateatVirginiaVirginia3.5 points63.1%Pending
Aug 29Jacksonville StateatNorth Dakota StateJacksonville State15.3 points63.1%Pending
Aug 29Sacramento StateatEastern MichiganEastern Michigan0.6 points57.5%Pending
Aug 29Hawai'iatStanfordStanford0.7 points59.3%Pending
Aug 29New Mexico StateatFlorida StateFlorida State37.1 points92.0%Pending
Aug 29MemphisatUNLVUNLV3.3 points53.7%Pending

Probability check

Is confidence matching reality?

A well-calibrated model should win roughly seven of every ten games placed in the 70–79% band. This record accumulates through the season.

Calibration results will appear after the first week’s scores are recorded.

How it works

01

Rate

Raw scoring margins enter a pure least-squares Massey system. FCS opponents remain in the network, while only FBS teams are ranked.

02

Calibrate

A logistic probability curve was trained on chronological 2021–24 predictions and tested against the untouched 2025 season.

03

Simulate

Each scheduled game is played 50,000 times while allowing for genuine uncertainty in every team’s preseason strength.

Strength of schedule is the average current Massey rating of every opponent on a team’s known regular-season schedule, including lower-division opponents. Rank No. 1 denotes the most difficult schedule. Because opponent ratings change as results accumulate, schedule strength is recalculated with every weekly update.

The exact weekly calculation

From ratings to a win probability

Projection
Preseason projection
Scoring home-field advantage
2.236 points
Probability-equivalent home effect
5.903 rating points
Neutral-site adjustment
0 points
Predicted marginM = Rhome − Raway + S

M is the predicted scoring margin from the home team’s perspective. S is the historically observed 2.236-point scoring advantage for a true home game and zero at a neutral site.

Win probabilityP(home) = 1 ÷ (1 + e−(0.056917929D + 0.336009714I))

D is the unadjusted rating difference and I is 1 for a true home game or 0 at a neutral site. The 0.336010 home coefficient is equivalent to 5.903 rating points for win-probability purposes; it is not an expected scoring margin. The visitor’s probability is 1 − P(home).

Try it yourself

Win-probability calculator

Use team ratings to calculate the margin automatically, or enter an already calculated margin directly.

Choose an input method
Predicted resultHome by 7.2
Home win probability65.0%
Visitor win probability35.0%

At a neutral site, a margin of 0.0 produces a 50.0% probability for each team. At a true home site, the scoring model adds 2.236 points, while the independently fitted probability model gives home status a 0.336010 log-odds effect—equivalent to 5.903 rating points for probability purposes.

The projection label and calibration values above identify the inputs used for the currently displayed week. The scoring adjustment estimates points on the scoreboard; the separately fitted logistic home effect estimates the chance of winning.

Regular-season schedule through Week 14. Conference championships and postseason games are excluded because their participants are not yet known.