PPenultimatology

College football · 2026 · Through Week 6

The field,
measured.

A transparent Massey system for team strength, game probabilities, and projected regular-season records—built to change as the games do.

Teams
138
Completed games
448
Simulated seasons
50,000

The distinction

Strength is not destiny.

Rank measures estimated team strength. Projected wins combine that strength with the difficulty and location of each opponent.

These are preseason estimates, not declarations. Team strength varies in each of 50,000 simulations, and the prior disappears after a team’s fourth game.

Through Week 6

Ratings & projections

Results included through October 11, 2026.

RankTeamActualRatingSOSGame projectionConference projection6+ winsView team
1Alabama5–153.7#1325.3 avg.11–18–1100%
2Notre Dame6–049.8#5318.0 avg.12–00–0100%
3▲ 4Georgia6–046.8#3021.5 avg.12–09–0100%
4▲ 1Utah5–045.1#3720.3 avg.12–09–0100%
5▼ 1Ohio State5–144.8#2023.4 avg.10–28–1100%
6▼ 3Texas4–142.6#229.6 avg.9–36–399%
7▼ 1Nebraska5–140.6#3320.8 avg.10–27–2100%
8LSU4–240.1#1025.4 avg.9–36–396%
9▲ 1Miami5–040.1#6314.5 avg.11–19–0100%
10▼ 1UCLA5–039.6#4219.5 avg.12–09–0100%
11▲ 3Missouri5–138.0#626.5 avg.10–27–2100%
12▼ 1Mississippi State4–137.3#1225.3 avg.9–36–3100%
13▲ 2Oregon3–236.1#2123.2 avg.9–37–293%
14▲ 8Indiana6–035.1#5716.0 avg.11–18–1100%
15▲ 4South Carolina3–334.9#725.7 avg.7–54–581%
16▲ 7BYU5–034.5#2222.8 avg.9–37–2100%
17▼ 1Kentucky5–134.4#328.7 avg.8–45–4100%
18▲ 6Houston5–134.1#4618.8 avg.10–27–2100%
19▼ 7Tennessee5–132.6#1824.1 avg.7–54–598%
20▲ 13Wake Forest5–131.8#6813.7 avg.11–18–1100%
21▼ 8Pittsburgh5–131.7#6215.2 avg.9–36–3100%
22▲ 3Texas Tech5–031.7#4818.5 avg.10–27–2100%
23▲ 17Oklahoma3–231.3#130.4 avg.7–55–475%
24▼ 7Florida4–231.2#1125.3 avg.7–54–588%
25▼ 7Wisconsin4–131.1#4019.8 avg.9–37–299%
26▲ 13Ole Miss4–130.9#1524.8 avg.6–63–697%
27Iowa5–129.5#3820.2 avg.9–36–399%
28▲ 8Oklahoma State4–128.8#4918.5 avg.9–37–298%
29▼ 8UCF3–328.6#3520.6 avg.8–46–383%
30▼ 10Texas A&M3–328.5#825.6 avg.5–72–756%
31▼ 5Northwestern4–128.4#5218.3 avg.9–36–397%
32▲ 3New Mexico4–128.2#134-0.6 avg.11–18–0100%
33▲ 5Arizona5–128.2#4319.3 avg.9–36–399%
34▲ 13Louisville3–328.0#5418.0 avg.7–56–379%
35▲ 21Oregon State4–227.4#769.9 avg.8–36–197%
36▼ 6Baylor4–127.1#3919.9 avg.7–55–491%
37▼ 8Iowa State3–326.6#2522.0 avg.6–64–568%
38▲ 5Kansas2–326.0#3221.2 avg.5–73–647%
39▼ 7Penn State3–325.7#6115.3 avg.8–45–485%
40▲ 2USC6–125.7#2422.4 avg.7–54–5100%
41▼ 13Auburn3–225.5#925.4 avg.5–72–766%
42▲ 15Purdue3–325.1#1424.9 avg.5–74–565%
43▲ 1TCU2–325.1#2721.9 avg.5–73–643%
44▲ 10North Carolina3–224.7#2821.9 avg.7–54–483%
45▲ 1Boise State5–124.3#7211.1 avg.10–17–0100%
46▼ 12James Madison6–023.7#1231.4 avg.12–08–0100%
47▼ 16Duke4–123.4#6414.5 avg.8–45–496%
48▲ 5Michigan3–223.0#1923.6 avg.6–63–667%
49▼ 4Kansas State3–221.9#5915.3 avg.6–63–675%
50Illinois3–321.8#1624.8 avg.3–91–839%
51▼ 3Virginia4–221.2#6514.4 avg.8–46–390%
52▼ 15Florida State3–320.9#4519.3 avg.6–64–462%
53▼ 12Virginia Tech4–220.8#7410.5 avg.8–45–495%
54▼ 5Michigan State2–420.3#1724.4 avg.4–82–725%
55Syracuse2–319.9#5617.3 avg.5–73–647%
56▲ 6Clemson3–219.5#3620.3 avg.6–64–484%
57▲ 2Cincinnati4–118.5#4119.8 avg.5–72–781%
58▲ 8Liberty5–118.3#131-0.2 avg.11–18–0100%
59▼ 7Minnesota4–217.9#3121.2 avg.4–82–763%
60▲ 11Memphis5–117.3#1034.2 avg.10–27–1100%
61▼ 3West Virginia3–317.2#2921.8 avg.4–81–833%
62▼ 1Maryland2–417.1#2621.9 avg.4–82–725%
63▼ 12Vanderbilt3–316.9#428.0 avg.4–81–824%
64▲ 9North Texas4–216.4#985.0 avg.9–37–198%
65▼ 5NC State3–315.9#6713.7 avg.6–64–564%
66▼ 3Georgia State4–115.4#1211.7 avg.10–27–199%
67UTSA5–114.8#798.9 avg.10–27–1100%
68▼ 3Washington3–314.8#3420.6 avg.3–90–921%
69▲ 1Fresno State4–214.7#808.7 avg.7–44–385%
70▼ 2SMU4–113.5#6613.7 avg.6–64–588%
71▼ 7Army3–213.1#915.5 avg.7–45–377%
72▲ 12California3–312.9#6015.3 avg.4–83–649%
73▲ 8Arkansas2–412.7#527.0 avg.2–100–93%
74▼ 5Texas State2–312.5#6912.8 avg.6–54–334%
75▲ 4UConn3–312.4#955.1 avg.6–60–080%
76▼ 1Arizona State3–212.2#5118.3 avg.4–82–739%
77▼ 3Louisiana Tech3–211.9#1103.5 avg.7–55–393%
78▼ 2South Florida4–211.9#1024.3 avg.8–44–497%
79▼ 1North Dakota State5–111.6#137-3.1 avg.10–27–2100%
80▲ 11Georgia Southern2–411.6#828.2 avg.6–65–351%
81▲ 13Western Michigan4–211.2#1251.4 avg.9–37–198%
82▼ 5Tulsa3–310.8#875.8 avg.7–54–478%
83▼ 1Troy3–210.0#847.0 avg.6–64–481%
84▲ 14Georgia Tech2–39.7#5018.5 avg.3–92–611%
85▲ 7Florida Atlantic4–19.6#885.8 avg.7–54–492%
86▲ 15UNLV4–29.2#905.6 avg.8–46–296%
87Colorado2–39.2#2322.4 avg.2–100–910%
88▼ 5Utah State2–48.8#5815.5 avg.4–73–411%
89▲ 10Colorado State2–38.4#7510.2 avg.3–81–623%
90▲ 5South Alabama4–27.9#1113.4 avg.9–37–194%
91▲ 2Louisiana4–27.9#1291.1 avg.9–36–295%
92▼ 7Tulane2–37.6#779.6 avg.5–73–551%
93▼ 4Miami (OH)3–37.2#1064.0 avg.8–46–284%
94▲ 13Florida International3–27.2#1221.5 avg.6–64–487%
95▲ 2East Carolina3–27.1#895.6 avg.8–46–279%
96▼ 24Toledo4–26.7#136-2.0 avg.9–36–295%
97▲ 14Navy2–36.7#789.5 avg.4–73–520%
98▲ 11Air Force4–16.6#1201.8 avg.9–36–296%
99▼ 19Temple2–46.4#935.3 avg.5–74–442%
100Ohio4–25.9#132-0.3 avg.9–37–197%
101▲ 3Jacksonville State4–24.9#133-0.3 avg.9–37–195%
102▲ 1Arkansas State2–44.4#1054.0 avg.5–73–536%
103▼ 7Kennesaw State1–44.3#1152.7 avg.6–65–329%
104▼ 16App State3–24.1#1261.3 avg.5–72–672%
105▼ 3Delaware2–34.1#1162.5 avg.7–55–364%
106▼ 16Sam Houston1–43.6#1171.9 avg.6–65–337%
107▲ 1Washington State1–53.1#7111.2 avg.2–91–60%
108▼ 3Massachusetts4–23.1#138-4.3 avg.6–63–592%
109▲ 1Rutgers1–42.7#5517.6 avg.1–110–90%
110▲ 9Nevada2–32.3#994.8 avg.5–74–427%
111▼ 5Boston College2–31.3#4718.7 avg.2–100–83%
112▲ 5Bowling Green2–41.1#837.3 avg.5–75–336%
113▲ 1Coastal Carolina2–40.8#1014.4 avg.5–74–417%
114▼ 28San Diego State2–40.7#7012.4 avg.3–82–56%
115▼ 3Rice1–50.5#7310.9 avg.1–110–82%
116UAB3–30.1#925.3 avg.4–82–647%
117▼ 4San José State3–3-0.8#1073.9 avg.5–83–664%
118New Mexico State2–4-1.1#1241.4 avg.5–74–427%
119▲ 1Stanford2–4-1.2#4419.3 avg.3–91–87%
120▲ 9Buffalo3–3-1.4#1281.2 avg.8–46–269%
121▼ 6Eastern Michigan4–3-2.2#1300.8 avg.6–65–375%
122Old Dominion2–4-2.9#965.1 avg.4–83–518%
123▲ 2Central Michigan3–3-5.2#1271.2 avg.4–82–659%
124▲ 6Wyoming3–3-5.9#1123.3 avg.4–83–539%
125▼ 4Northern Illinois0–5-6.2#856.6 avg.2–102–62%
126▲ 2Hawai'i1–5-6.9#1181.9 avg.2–100–83%
127▲ 8Western Kentucky2–4-7.1#945.1 avg.2–101–711%
128▼ 4Southern Miss1–4-7.2#1093.7 avg.2–101–75%
129▼ 3Marshall3–3-7.7#1083.9 avg.3–90–835%
130▼ 3Kent State2–4-8.5#1004.7 avg.4–83–514%
131Middle Tennessee2–3-8.6#1191.9 avg.3–91–719%
132▲ 2Akron1–5-8.9#1133.2 avg.1–110–82%
133▼ 1Ball State1–5-10.6#1044.1 avg.3–92–63%
134▲ 3UTEP1–5-11.1#866.1 avg.3–92–62%
135▼ 12Missouri State1–4-11.2#1143.2 avg.1–110–82%
136UL Monroe0–5-13.2#975.0 avg.1–111–70%
137▼ 4Sacramento State1–5-14.6#135-1.9 avg.1–110–82%
138Charlotte0–6-15.7#818.4 avg.0–120–80%

Team outlook

Georgia Tech

Strength rank #84 · Actual record 2–3 · Pure current-season rating

Game-by-game projection3–925% chance of exactly this record
Schedule strength#5018.5 opponent rating
Conference projection2–6
Expected record4.1–7.9
Most likely record4–8
6+ wins11%
Week 7 · Away · ConferenceVirginia Tech
Projected L28%
Week 8 · Home · ConferenceBoston College
Projected W69%
Week 9 · Away · ConferencePittsburgh
Projected L17%
Week 10 · Home · ConferenceLouisville
Projected L33%
Week 11 · Away · ConferenceClemson
Projected L29%
Week 12 · Home · ConferenceWake Forest
Projected L28%
Week 13 · AwayGeorgia
Projected L8%

Predictions on the record

Weekly forecast & results

Each forecast is preserved before kickoff. Once scores arrive, the original choices remain unchanged and their accuracy is added to the record.

Week 7
Pending
62 games forecast
2026 season
358–90
79.9% correct

Forecast: Through Week 6 · using results through October 11. A tie at exactly 50% is assigned to the home team for the published pick.

Showing 62 of 62 games

DateMatchupPredicted winnerPredicted marginWin probabilityResult
Oct 13DelawareatMiddle TennesseeDelaware12.6 points59.5%Pending
Oct 13Florida InternationalatJacksonville StateJacksonville State2.3 points55.1%Pending
Oct 14Kennesaw StateatMissouri StateKennesaw State15.6 points63.4%Pending
Oct 14Western KentuckyatSam HoustonSam Houston10.7 points72.0%Pending
Oct 15East CarolinaatUABEast Carolina6.9 points51.5%Pending
Oct 15Georgia SouthernatOld DominionGeorgia Southern14.5 points62.0%Pending
Oct 15Colorado StateatTexas StateTexas State4.2 points63.9%Pending
Oct 16MemphisatTulaneMemphis9.7 points55.3%Pending
Oct 16WashingtonatPurduePurdue10.4 points71.6%Pending
Oct 16App StateatCoastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina3.2 points53.8%Pending
Oct 17NebraskaatOregonOregon4.5 points52.0%Pending
Oct 17WisconsinatUCLAUCLA8.5 points69.4%Pending
Oct 17Mississippi StateatLSULSU2.9 points62.2%Pending
Oct 17FloridaatTexasTexas11.4 points72.8%Pending
Oct 17CincinnatiatWest VirginiaWest Virginia1.3 points56.5%Pending
Oct 17KansasatKansas StateKansas State4.1 points52.5%Pending
Oct 17Charleston SouthernatClemsonClemson34.8 points91.0%Pending
Oct 17PittsburghatBoston CollegePittsburgh30.4 points80.1%Pending
Oct 17VirginiaatSMUVirginia7.8 points52.7%Pending
Oct 17Ohio StateatIndianaOhio State9.8 points55.5%Pending
Oct 17NorthwesternatMichigan StateNorthwestern8.1 points53.1%Pending
Oct 17Florida AtlanticatArmyArmy3.5 points63.1%Pending
Oct 17Ball StateatBowling GreenBowling Green11.7 points73.2%Pending
Oct 17Georgia StateatJames MadisonJames Madison8.3 points69.2%Pending
Oct 17RutgersatMarylandMaryland14.4 points76.0%Pending
Oct 17The CitadelatTexas A&MTexas A&M42.5 points94.0%Pending
Oct 17CharlotteatTempleTemple22.2 points83.2%Pending
Oct 17MassachusettsatBuffaloBuffalo4.5 points52.0%Pending
Oct 17Western MichiganatCentral MichiganWestern Michigan16.5 points64.6%Pending
Oct 17AuburnatGeorgiaGeorgia21.3 points82.4%Pending
Oct 17MissouriatOle MissMissouri7.1 points51.8%Pending
Oct 17AlabamaatTennesseeAlabama21.1 points70.3%Pending
Oct 17Arizona StateatTexas TechTexas Tech19.4 points80.9%Pending
Oct 17Georgia TechatVirginia TechVirginia Tech11.1 points72.5%Pending
Oct 17North CarolinaatDukeDuke1.3 points56.5%Pending
Oct 17Penn StateatMichiganMichigan2.8 points54.4%Pending
Oct 17Northern IllinoisatWyomingWyoming0.2 points58.7%Pending
Oct 17UNLVatAir ForceAir Force2.7 points54.6%Pending
Oct 17ToledoatEastern MichiganToledo8.9 points54.3%Pending
Oct 17AkronatMiami (OH)Miami (OH)16.2 points77.9%Pending
Oct 17TulsaatRiceTulsa10.3 points56.2%Pending
Oct 17TroyatLouisianaLouisiana2.2 points55.3%Pending
Oct 17Washington StateatOregon StateOregon State24.3 points84.8%Pending
Oct 17ArkansasatVanderbiltVanderbilt4.2 points64.0%Pending
Oct 17TCUatBaylorBaylor2.0 points61.0%Pending
Oct 17Florida StateatMiamiMiami19.2 points80.7%Pending
Oct 17Kent StateatSouth FloridaSouth Florida20.3 points81.6%Pending
Oct 17NevadaatNorth Dakota StateNorth Dakota State9.3 points70.4%Pending
Oct 17Arkansas StateatSouthern MissArkansas State11.6 points58.1%Pending
Oct 17KentuckyatOklahomaOklahoma3.1 points54.0%Pending
Oct 17Notre DameatBYUNotre Dame15.3 points63.0%Pending
Oct 17Oklahoma StateatHoustonHouston5.3 points65.4%Pending
Oct 17ElonatStanfordStanford6.5 points66.9%Pending
Oct 17LouisvilleatSyracuseLouisville8.2 points53.2%Pending
Oct 17NavyatUTSAUTSA8.1 points69.0%Pending
Oct 17Louisiana TechatUL MonroeLouisiana Tech25.1 points74.9%Pending
Oct 17San José StateatUTEPSan José State10.3 points56.3%Pending
Oct 17OhioatSacramento StateOhio20.5 points69.7%Pending
Oct 17UtahatColoradoUtah35.9 points84.7%Pending
Oct 17Wake ForestatCaliforniaWake Forest18.9 points67.7%Pending
Oct 17Fresno StateatSan Diego StateFresno State14.0 points61.4%Pending
Oct 17New MexicoatHawai'iNew Mexico35.1 points84.1%Pending

Probability check

Is confidence matching reality?

A well-calibrated model should win roughly seven of every ten games placed in the 70–79% band. This record accumulates through the season.

50–59% forecasts
55.6%
55 of 99 correct
60–69% forecasts
70.9%
56 of 79 correct
70–79% forecasts
80.5%
70 of 87 correct
80–89% forecasts
95.6%
86 of 90 correct
90–100% forecasts
97.8%
91 of 93 correct

How it works

01

Rate

Raw scoring margins enter a pure least-squares Massey system. FCS opponents remain in the network, while only FBS teams are ranked.

02

Calibrate

A logistic probability curve was trained on chronological 2021–24 predictions and tested against the untouched 2025 season.

03

Simulate

Each scheduled game is played 50,000 times while allowing for genuine uncertainty in every team’s preseason strength.

Strength of schedule is the average current Massey rating of every opponent on a team’s known regular-season schedule, including lower-division opponents. Rank No. 1 denotes the most difficult schedule. Because opponent ratings change as results accumulate, schedule strength is recalculated with every weekly update.

The exact weekly calculation

From ratings to a win probability

Projection
Through Week 6
Scoring home-field advantage
2.236 points
Probability-equivalent home effect
5.903 rating points
Neutral-site adjustment
0 points
Predicted marginM = Rhome − Raway + S

M is the predicted scoring margin from the home team’s perspective. S is the historically observed 2.236-point scoring advantage for a true home game and zero at a neutral site.

Win probabilityP(home) = 1 ÷ (1 + e−(0.056917929D + 0.336009714I))

D is the unadjusted rating difference and I is 1 for a true home game or 0 at a neutral site. The 0.336010 home coefficient is equivalent to 5.903 rating points for win-probability purposes; it is not an expected scoring margin. The visitor’s probability is 1 − P(home).

Try it yourself

Win-probability calculator

Use team ratings to calculate the margin automatically, or enter an already calculated margin directly.

Choose an input method
Predicted resultHome by 7.2
Home win probability65.0%
Visitor win probability35.0%

At a neutral site, a margin of 0.0 produces a 50.0% probability for each team. At a true home site, the scoring model adds 2.236 points, while the independently fitted probability model gives home status a 0.336010 log-odds effect—equivalent to 5.903 rating points for probability purposes.

The projection label and calibration values above identify the inputs used for the currently displayed week. The scoring adjustment estimates points on the scoreboard; the separately fitted logistic home effect estimates the chance of winning.

Regular-season schedule through Week 14. Conference championships and postseason games are excluded because their participants are not yet known.