PPenultimatology

Basketball · WNBA · Daily edition

The season,
in motion.

Daily Massey ratings, projected standings, and game probabilities—recalculated every morning and preserved before tipoff.

Results through
August 29, 2026
Teams rated
15
Historical test
65.7% correct

The daily measure

Every result changes what comes next.

Scoring margins determine each team’s opponent-adjusted rating. Recent games receive somewhat more weight, while a two-game prior steadies the opening weeks.

Predictions shown on game day are locked into the public record. Forecasts for later dates remain provisional until their game-day update.

Current ratings

Strength and projected finish

Rating zero is league average. Projected records combine completed results with the win probability of every remaining game.

Showing 15 of 15 teams

RankTeamRecordMassey ratingProjected recordPlayoff probability
1Minnesota LynxMIN · Western31–8+7.3734.1–9.9100%
2Golden State ValkyriesGS · Western28–11+7.0031.8–12.2100%
3Indiana FeverIND · Eastern26–14+5.8328.4–15.6100%
4Atlanta DreamATL · Eastern25–14+4.6728.1–15.9100%
5Las Vegas AcesLV · Western27–13+3.8929.8–14.2100%
6Dallas WingsDAL · Western23–16+2.6526.5–17.5100%
7New York LibertyNY · Eastern24–16+2.5726.0–18.0100%
8Washington MysticsWSH · Eastern24–160.0026.3–17.7100%
9Phoenix MercuryPHX · Western14–26-2.8715.5–28.50.0%
10Portland FirePOR · Western16–23-3.2517.8–26.20.0%
11Chicago SkyCHI · Eastern15–25-3.4916.7–27.30.0%
12Seattle StormSEA · Western8–31-4.299.6–34.40.0%
13Los Angeles SparksLA · Western14–25-4.6115.7–28.30.0%
14Toronto TempoTOR · Eastern11–29-7.2912.3–31.70.0%
15Connecticut SunCON · Eastern10–29-8.1711.3–32.70.0%

Playoff probabilities come from 20,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Rating breaks simulated ties; official WNBA tiebreakers are not modeled in this initial version.

Today’s games

Predictions on the record

Generated from results through August 29, 2026. These choices will not change after tipoff.

Sun, Aug 30 · 3:00 PM ETOn the record
Minnesota LynxatAtlanta Dream
Predicted winner
Minnesota Lynx
Margin
1.3 points
Win probability
53.2%
Sun, Aug 30 · 5:00 PM ETOn the record
Los Angeles SparksatSeattle Storm
Predicted winner
Seattle Storm
Margin
1.7 points
Win probability
55.5%
Sun, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ETOn the record
Golden State ValkyriesatPortland Fire
Predicted winner
Golden State Valkyries
Margin
8.9 points
Win probability
73.2%
Sun, Aug 30 · 8:30 PM ETOn the record
Connecticut SunatDallas Wings
Predicted winner
Dallas Wings
Margin
12.2 points
Win probability
80.8%

Looking ahead

The next seven days

These forecasts use today’s ratings and may change as new results enter the system.

Prediction record

Nothing rewritten after the fact.

The daily public record begins with this edition. Once completed games arrive, results and probability calibration will accumulate here.

Season record
11–4
73.3% correct
Predictions archived
15
Historical test
188–98
65.7% in untouched 2025

Previous predictions

Every pick and result

Predictions are locked before tipoff. The score and outcome are added when the game becomes final.

DateMatchupPredictionFinal scoreResult
Aug 29TOR at PHXToronto Tempo at Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury61.9% · by 4.0TOR 69, PHX 101Correct
Aug 29CHI at NYChicago Sky at New York LibertyNew York Liberty69.0% · by 6.7CHI 66, NY 85Correct
Aug 28WSH at LAWashington Mystics at Los Angeles SparksWashington Mystics60.4% · by 3.8 · ReconstructedWSH 82, LA 88Incorrect
Aug 28TOR at LVToronto Tempo at Las Vegas AcesLas Vegas Aces78.8% · by 11.1 · ReconstructedTOR 73, LV 93Correct
Aug 28CON at INDConnecticut Sun at Indiana FeverIndiana Fever85.5% · by 15.1 · ReconstructedCON 91, IND 111Correct
Aug 28POR at ATLPortland Fire at Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream79.0% · by 11.2 · ReconstructedPOR 101, ATL 83Incorrect
Aug 27WSH at PHXWashington Mystics at Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics56.3% · by 2.4WSH 80, PHX 73Correct
Aug 27GS at NYGolden State Valkyries at New York LibertyGolden State Valkyries56.6% · by 2.5GS 79, NY 60Correct
Aug 26TOR at SEAToronto Tempo at Seattle StormSeattle Storm58.0% · by 2.6TOR 78, SEA 90Correct
Aug 26GS at CONGolden State Valkyries at Connecticut SunGolden State Valkyries80.4% · by 12.4GS 89, CON 64Correct
Aug 25WSH at PHXWashington Mystics at Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics54.7% · by 1.8WSH 94, PHX 84Correct
Aug 25POR at DALPortland Fire at Dallas WingsDallas Wings71.1% · by 7.6POR 78, DAL 96Correct
Aug 25CHI at CONChicago Sky at Connecticut SunChicago Sky60.1% · by 3.7CHI 81, CON 87Incorrect
Aug 24ATL at LAAtlanta Dream at Los Angeles SparksAtlanta Dream74.0% · by 9.2ATL 78, LA 71Correct
Aug 24GS at MINGolden State Valkyries at Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx61.1% · by 3.7GS 80, MIN 66Incorrect

Methodology

A WNBA-specific Massey system

Five completed seasons informed the initial model. Seasons 2022–24 selected the method; all 286 games in 2025 were held back for its final test.

01 · Rate

Opponent-adjusted margins

Least squares finds the ratings that best explain every scoring margin. The initial production model uses full margins rather than capping blowouts.

02 · Weight

Recent games matter more

Game weight declines by half every 90 days. The previous season begins as a two-game prior, stabilizing new-season estimates without dominating them.

03 · Predict

Margin becomes probability

A true home game adds 1.388 points. The resulting margin enters a logistic curve calibrated on chronological historical forecasts.

Predicted marginM = Rhome − Raway + 1.388
Home win probabilityP = 1 ÷ (1 + e−(0.023300 + 0.115882M))

Backtest: 65.7% winner accuracy, 10.84-point mean absolute margin error, and 0.216 Brier score in the untouched 2025 season. Rest and back-to-back adjustments were tested but omitted because they worsened out-of-sample probabilities. Data: ESPN WNBA scoreboard.